By Lloyd Sherman, October 7, 2021
Treasurer, HSV Board of Realtors
This report is designed to basically cover the current activities against the same timeframe last year. However, it also reflects the results of the last three years.
Information provided comes directly from the MLS (Cooperative Arkansas Realtors MLS – CARMLS) and contains only information from within the Village boundaries. Other sources may be providing their statistics based on zip code and most of them also contain lot and townhome information, which this report breaks out as their own categories. It is also worthy to note these numbers are provided several days after the month has closed which may result in differences down the road due to data not having been updated by the Realtor community.
Single Family properties sold through 10/31/2021
- 594 sold for 2021
- Available for sale = 35
- Average selling price – $305.828
- Median selling price – $265,000
- Average selling price per square foot – $129.79
- Average days on market – 25
- Under Contract – 78
- Taking Backup Offers – 11
Single Family properties sold through 9/30/2020
- 591 sold for 2020
- Available for sale = 78
- Average selling price – $243,271
- Median selling price – $214,000
- Average price per square foot – $105.19
- Average days on market 63
- Under contract 87
- Taking backup offers 34
What does this tell us?
- Inventory still remains extremely low plus is on the market less than 30 days on the average.
- Both average selling price and price per square foot have increased significantly, and while the price per square foot has seen an increase, the numbers here appear to be more reflective of sales in all categories of $200K and above.
Caution: Keep in mind that these numbers only include transactions that have gone through the MLS and as such, the new build number will not include those where lot owners have contracted directly with a builder.
Lots and Lots of Lots
This category continues to be a shining star. YTD of 2021 shows 249 MLS lots bought and closed. Last year at this time it was 134, which was an excellent trend over recent years.
Condos/Townhomes
As with the other two categories, this one is no different. YTD, we have sold 105 units. At this point last year, we had sold 79. The same trend on Average Selling Price and Average Per Square Foot being up also is true here.
DISCLAIMER: Many continue to ask how long this market will continue. There have been signs that banks are pushing back on what they consider inflated values. They will no longer use cash sales in their comps. This writer believes we have at least peaked and are seeing some come back on the market, part of which may be a result of comps not meeting appraisals. These statements represent only the opinions of the writer and the questions I have about the current market conditions and how much further buyers will go before price becomes a limiting decision. The fact that many are fleeing high-density areas and relocating to places like the Village should be a favorable sign for us, but like most things these days, time will tell.
Feel free to reach out to me at lloydhsv@gmail.com if I can answer any questions for you.
Hot Springs Village Real Estate Market 2020 V 2021 (Through Oct-2021)
2020-V-2021-thru-Oct-2021* * *
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Kirk Denger
11/07/2021 — 9:23 pm
Every million dollars wasted on marketing is another million dollars not maintaining infrastructure. 2 X $6.7 million wasted so far.
Frank Shears aka Bubba McGillicuty
11/08/2021 — 11:12 am
This is excellent news for those of us who like to see property values here in the Village going up. It makes me wonder about those who are nay-saying. Is it because they don’t like the efforts and successes our current Board of Directors have brought about. They must not be aware of what has taken place over the past 12 months. Oh well.
A huge thank you to Lloyd for providing us with this report. It gives us all a lift in spirits to see our properties increase in value like this.
HSVP C
11/08/2021 — 4:14 pm
Frank, are you attributing the rise in property values to the Board of Directors? I do not think the Board had anything to do with this. “The S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index rose by an amazing 19.7% during the year to July 2021 (13.61% inflation-adjusted), a sharp acceleration from the previous year’s 4.85% growth and the biggest y-o-y increase ever recorded. This is supported by figures released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which showed that its seasonally-adjusted purchase-only U.S. house price index rose by 19.17% y-o-y in July 2021 (13.11% inflation-adjusted), sharply up from the prior year’s 6.92% growth and also the highest annual growth on record.” https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/North-America/United-States/Price-History
Susan Posner
11/08/2021 — 9:29 pm
Correct this rise in sales price has nothing to do with BOD. Totally driven by pandemic last and this year in shut down, new house building/building supplies stopping, fire/floods, low inventory; hence bump in resale prices.
However values inside HSV verses outside still lower for same housing. Also HSV biggest rise in housing prices were in older smaller homes inventory vs newer larger inventory. Developers/builders will adjust to building more smaller houses, sell lots with construction commitment to build on. People didn’t earn more in pandemic/inflation, but will ease (feds are going to start acting to cool inflation) It will improve, but not overnight.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ar/hot-springs-village/real-estate#data
HSV past stagnant and depreciated values within past 10 years due to prior adjustable rate lending; doubling assessment, high increase of non owner residency vacation second and rental tenant homes.(near 20%) Those fore mentioned if not kept in check will affect property values ahead. That BOD’s should address.
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/ar/hot-springs-village/real-estate#description
Is there other things POA can do vs raising high assessments and fees high? Yes been busy, but working on short list to submit. Invite other owners to submit to BOD reasonable ideas too(not complaints) AND BOD should keep those submissions for future BOD’s as input. Best way email now, but think website member portal should have an on going suggestion form and occasional surveys. FRAFT form was OK short term for that, but now should be an IDEA form long term for BOD, staff, committees to view.
Karen E Bump
11/10/2021 — 4:02 pm
Kirk, I beg to differ with you about marketing. The board this year and last did spend sufficient money on marketing for once, and it helps tremendously to attract people to the Village. HSV should continue to market aggressively, market golf much, much more and get more free publicity from writers as came here the past year. Contacts and follow up materials (marketing) are needed for this activity which should be a constant, not a one and done thing. Since Cooper’s direct sales advertising stopped, the village either did not understand what marketing is, or did not care, but I am glad this board has chosen a marketing agency (Sells Agency) who knew how to get this going finally. I hope the board continues to use them, especially since we only have one person on staff in the marketing department now.
Wes Smith
11/11/2021 — 10:52 am
Excellent data analysis with breakout of key driving catalysts of HSV overall Real Estate Marketplace. Thank you so much Lloyd Sherman!
Special dittos to the following villagers & their commentary
Cheryl Dowden ( Case-Shiller supporting data) w/ links for deep dive into what makes the marketplace tick !
Susan Posner on point targeted replies with historical key points and opinions …. However, I would diverge in my personal stance to be in favor of bringing assessments to align with our aging infrastructure debt… Although, I imagine your on target with your past observations with former BOD mistakes. I urge everyone to not to live in the past but to learn from it to better tackle our future challenges… As Susan encourages us to be proactive , I submitted 7 strategic plans to Task Force which best I can tell met all their qualifying criteria.> My plans were creative “outside the box pathways” to raise revenue and not cost HSV a penny to do so… never got any traction only a template reply from the task force… very discouraging to say the least !
Last but not least Karen Bump to take issue with Kirk’s wasteful comment …Respectfully Kirk, Marketing is the lifeblood of any industry …. eliminating this important facet of your business plan will result in a risky harmful void in the Marketplace. . Competition is fierce and HSV must always stay the course by messaging and positioning your product / service offering to your target market. To do otherwise is to risk loosing market share and thus your revenues will drop accordingly.
Now to your accusation of waste , are there misguided unprofessional Marketing Plans and can HSV improve upon their Marketing Plans , Answer YES ; But to eliminate Marketing entirely , NEVER !
Susan Posner
11/12/2021 — 12:16 am
It isn’t just task force that basically ignores suggestions or solutions from member owners, it’s an on going board problem. My suggestion of members to not be complacent wasn’t as much to villagers as it was to the boards and their past and current lack of communication and consideration. Time frame of task force to members to board to board decision was short and board spent little time engaging the owners before voting decision. Big rush. Assessments are not based on the whims of a few board members and that has been the case past and present and needs to stop. Hence why assessments must be earmarked and not left to those few who decide. Kirk’s point is that overspending on marketing a less than desirable community and that shows in the constant drama and in fighting that permeates this place and has historically shown in lesser property values of 50% other similar communities in state and lower than 80% of similar communities in nation. No glossy pictures of golf scenery on website will increase golf decreasing nationally nor for magazine aesthetics will change that. Even Cooper knows top heavy in golf amenity is not sustainable, times have changed! You got to have more than that to attract to a residential community and HSV was built and is that. People vacation in resorts, they don’t build/buy and live in one. Community atmosphere must improve and that doesn’t cost $.
Susan Posner
11/12/2021 — 11:12 am
On HSV website: List of builders, out of those builders listed, there is a blue print outfit sells floor plans per square ft, but you are given list of builders(so they aren’t really builder) Rest only show a home or two they have built already and not in HSV(one shows only what they built in Hot Springs National Park at a subdivision there) and none show floor plans and no pricing and are mostly large luxury. Rest of the HSV so called builder list is links to emails of potential builders with no builder websites. Potential buyers wanting new home will definitely not be attracted to that terrible HSV builder list and look elsewhere where the builders have decent detailed variety of floor plans with prices. All HSV website is promoting is large luxury custom houses so catering to the wealthy, not average retirees nor average buyers. POA offers little desirable nor ease to potential lot buyers to want to build on the lot.(oh and the POA disclosure that was not needed to be worded like it is about those builders is a real turn off to any potential buyer to use that list or build in here) Nope I’d by pass HSV website to one that has variety in building options and builders who have websites that offer solid floor plans with pricing. New construction buyers want definite plans not guessing games. Current HSV website and those builders listed only offer guessing games. Terrible way to sell lots (least lots ready to build on) or entice new roof buyers.
Just goes to show POA needed to work in conjunction with developer mainly because developing wasn’t finished, you had lots still to sell and built upon in here(technically HSV has technically an HOA and a POA within) and most developer/builders know not to sell lots without commitment to build or else association gets no new roofs.
Kirk Denger
11/16/2021 — 9:35 am
Wes, thank you for your intelligent opinion, I respect your trade, but only if HSV POA had something to sell. POA is a non profit maintenance corporation. HSV was completely sold by CCI 15 years ago.
Wes Smith
11/12/2021 — 11:44 am
Susan has raised some key questions regarding BOD communication gaps with Villagers. In all due respect to BOD there is room for improvement that I believe Market Research can provide some much needed relief.
I just completed an inquiry to Bella Vista after noting their 5 Year Strategic Planning objectives via Market Research surveys ( quantitative ) and subsequent series of 4 focus groups ( qualitative) data collection. Tom Judson, CEO of Bella Vista was kind enough to invite me to participate in a zoom meeting for discussion / consultation of their questionnaire design development which I gladly accepted. Although this discussion is confidential there have been over 12,000 respondents participate and a wealth of valuable data collected to bridge the information gap between residents and BOD at Bella Vista. BRAVO !
In contrast, one of the most astonishing discoveries about HSV since I joined the Marketing Committee ( which was abolished, another mistake and topic) is after HSV’s founding over 50 years ago that until the Sellers Agency was hired there has been no Marketing or Advertising Research expenditures by our BOD!
Respectfully, this is a highly specialized area and is not Marketing per se , I do recognize HSV attempts to cover these bases in house with a Marketing Dept , BOD has e blasts , offers residents to voice opinions in person at end of meetings … I also noted in the Sellers Agency annual budget earmarked $ 8,000 for Market Research ? Not sure where this is going? Sellers is doing fine in pinpointing media buys , defining our target audience, social media and Public Relations monitoring which is all necessary to grow sales.
In my professional observations and 35 years of experience , I would strongly encourage our BOD to engage with our Villagers in a consistent professional manner utilizing the vast methodologies available to them via the powerful components of Market Research data collection and analysis such as Qualtrics, Survey Monkey, Typeform which can be used instead of e blasts to engage all Villagers .
Market Research is an investment that will make us all wiser and prudent in our future growth and development with valid data collection. Market Mix is open for business if anyone would like to discuss this opportunity.
See tomorrow, today !
http://www.mktmixms.com
Kirk Denger
11/14/2021 — 10:06 am
Sells said that the only way to find out if their services were working was to go without so there would be something to compare to. Spending $13 million in the last five years on grandiose sales schemes to get back a half $1 million in sales is $12 million that should have been invested in infrastructure. HSV BOD have succumbed to salesmanship, the proof is glaringly obvious.
Susan Posner
11/14/2021 — 7:16 pm
You are right on Kirk. It became all about selling visiting HSV with wear and tear, but not building/buying in HSV. Started with a 2 tier mess of selling lots just for membership in amenities that lot owners use only when they vacationed with no building commitment on lots. Marketing a new website as selling a country club destination to visit, discovery packages that were basically mini vacation package with no commitment to show property to buy and build on(no model home or plan offering) Even hiring last GM that ran a ski resort verses one that had real estate or developing background. And that failure in marketing shows, just look at the empty shop spaces in the plazas that were built around both entrances of here. You have bars and restaurants; the things visitors and vacationers will utilize, but less services like medical offices(closed clinics) or retail shops not coming; the things residents would utilize. More rental homes and Airbnb of visitor/tenants, not like owners that reside in home with pride of ownership rooted in making it home to drive the overall community to have things residents would use and need. You aren’t the areas shining example, oh sure you contribute to the visiting tourism of Hot Springs, but fail to enhance areas livability. Don’t know if it was BOD incompetence in how to market growth in a residential community or some portion of area just using this place as investment income.(that has destroyed many a community) Either way it was self inflicted and not the developer’s doing as developers are about new permanent roofs not just empty lots. Marketing models and gizmos won’t work unless you know what to market and so far its HSV a place to visit but not live. 2017 doubling of assessments, proposals to raise more and other recent increases in fees are pointing to that wrong marketing strategy.
Wes Smith
11/15/2021 — 10:12 am
Marketing & Advertising Research will provide solutions and a vision for HSV to follow in the the 21st Century.
The Consumer will reveal attitudes and beliefs both positive and negative which will dictate clarity and certainty resulting in bridging the information gap between the Marketplace & HSV.
Models or Methodologies are how professionals preview coming attractions to determine all facets of Consumer Behavior.
Respectfully , Susan have opined on the subject questioning these so called ‘gizmos’ your refer to are how Fortune 500 companies and all my clients base multi million dollar decisions upon on how to allocate working capital. Statistical Analysis enables me to draft project reports with certitude providing key implications and recommendations into the Marketplace.
Respectfully , Kirk & Susan have commented … Could HSV Marketing dollars have been better allocated, probably so … it is difficult to calculate a direct Return on Investment from Advertising and Marketing … Sells Agency has touched on this question and presented remarkable improvement in online Marketing lead generation as a result of targeted promotions . I would recommend taking these leads a step further by designing a Market Research survey to track how Consumer sentiments regarding Discovery packages, website content, visitation to HSV, Restaurants, Real Estate Community, product / service offering , no model home effect ? All of these are fundamental catalysts to shape managerial operations and drive sales.
It is my experience that to make assumptions is very risky business and the consequences are many time expensive not just financially but in public relations and perceptions of your product / service offering. Consequently, I prefer to base my decision making on valid data collection practices rather than data presumptions or dwelling on the past.
Has HSV made mistakes in the past , Absolutely … Has Salesmanship clouded BOD , probably so , Can these be rectified? … doubtful without recognition from professional Marketing or Advertising Research and implementation into decision making.( Hello HSV BOD , See Bella Vista , previous commentary / consultation ) .. otherwise it is all guesswork !
Lets hope the new GM has some thick skin along with expertise or willingness to explore these essential disciplines so HSV can flourish once and for all ! Stay Positive and Believe in Yourself !
ALL THE BEST to HSV SUCCESS !
Susan Posner
11/15/2021 — 7:42 pm
Fortune 500 corporation, all due respect who cares what anyone used to do when they were in the corporate world of the past. Many a rogue corporate CEO have ran Fortune 500 companies into the ground. Corporations aren’t residential community, home owners aren’t consumers and Bella Vista is a municipality with completely different demographics and they still have problems with association board. I stand with my assessment and no I’m not coming from assumption; HSV has no product if you insist (model homes/plans) it’s selling empty non build lots and resale homes that have high rate of rental. Couple years be same no new growth. Ceases to be community while pretending to be corporation. Amenities for association owners enjoyment or a commodity to visitors? HSV not blending with the region. Stop the Dale Carnegie of positive and believe in yourself talk to home owners who aren’t manufacturing anything, only bought into what they assumed was a residential community not a corporation.